Climate Stabilization

The assessment of the science of global warming issued in February 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that, "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [man-made] greenhouse gas emissions." It also concluded that the effects of this warming, such as melting snow and ice and rising sea levels, are being felt, and that, "Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century."1

Ford researchers have played a leading role in scientific research to understand and quantify the contribution of vehicles to climate change. We have also worked with a variety of partners to understand the current and projected man-made GHG emissions and the steps that can be taken to reduce them. Many scientists, businesses and governmental agencies have concluded that stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ at approximately 450 parts per million (ppm) may help to forestall or substantially delay the most serious consequences of climate change.

The Carbon Mitigation Initiative, a research partnership based at Princeton University and supported by BP and Ford, has examined what it would take to stabilize atmospheric CO₂ at 500 ppm compared with the 2010 level of approximately 388 ppm and the pre-industrial level of approximately 270–280 ppm. Researchers broadly identified a set of high-level stabilization strategies they call "wedges."2 Each wedge represents the implementation of a strategy that could cut global annual carbon emissions by 1 billion metric tons by 2054.3 The wedges concept is a powerful tool to demonstrate the scale of the climate stabilization challenge, the need for an approach that includes many different economic sectors (power, transportation, agriculture, industry), and the options that are available.

To explore which vehicle and fuel technologies might be most cost-effective to stabilize CO₂ at 450–550 ppm, we have worked with colleagues at Chalmers University in Gothenburg, Sweden, to include a detailed description of light-duty vehicles in a model of global energy use in 2010 to 2100. Nine technology cost cases were considered. We found that variation of vehicle technology costs over reasonable ranges led to large differences in the vehicle technologies utilized to meet future CO₂ stabilization targets. We concluded that given the large uncertainties in our current knowledge of future vehicle technology costs, it is too early to express any firm opinions about the future cost-effectiveness or optimality of different future fuel and vehicle powertrain technology combinations.4 This conclusion is reflected in the diversity of fuel and vehicle technologies included in our sustainability strategy.